The potential impact fraction of population weight reduction scenarios on non-communicable diseases in Belgium: application of the g-computation approach.

BACKGROUND: Overweight is a major risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Europe, affecting almost 60% of all adults. Tackling obesity is therefore a key long-term health challenge and is vital to reduce premature mortality from NCDs. Methodological challenges remain however, to provide actionable evidence on the potential health benefits of population weight reduction interventions. This study aims to use a g-computation approach to assess the impact of hypothetical weight reduction scenarios on NCDs in Belgium in a multi-exposure context. METHODS: Belgian health interview survey data (2008/2013/2018, n = 27 536) were linked to environmental data at the residential address. A g-computation approach was used to evaluate the potential impact fraction (PIF) of population weight reduction scenarios on four NCDs: diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and musculoskeletal (MSK) disease. Four scenarios were considered: 1) a distribution shift where, for each individual with overweight, a counterfactual weight was drawn from the distribution of individuals with a "normal" BMI 2) a one-unit reduction of the BMI of individuals with overweight, 3) a modification of the BMI of individuals with overweight based on a weight loss of 10%, 4) a reduction of the waist circumference (WC) to half of the height among all people with a WC:height ratio greater than 0.5. Regression models were adjusted for socio-demographic, lifestyle, and environmental factors. RESULTS: The first scenario resulted in preventing a proportion of cases ranging from 32.3% for diabetes to 6% for MSK diseases. The second scenario prevented a proportion of cases ranging from 4.5% for diabetes to 0.8% for MSK diseases. The third scenario prevented a proportion of cases, ranging from 13.6% for diabetes to 2.4% for MSK diseases and the fourth scenario prevented a proportion of cases ranging from 36.4% for diabetes to 7.1% for MSK diseases. CONCLUSION: Implementing weight reduction scenarios among individuals with excess weight could lead to a substantial and statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and musculoskeletal (MSK) diseases in Belgium. The g-computation approach to assess PIF of interventions represents a straightforward approach for drawing causal inferences from observational data while providing useful information for policy makers.

Multimorbidity healthcare expenditure in Belgium: a 4-year analysis (COMORB study).

BACKGROUND: The complex management of health needs in multimorbid patients, alongside limited cost data, presents challenges in developing cost-effective patient-care pathways. We estimated the costs of managing 171 dyads and 969 triads in Belgium, taking into account the influence of morbidity interactions on costs. METHODS: We followed a retrospective longitudinal study design, using the linked Belgian Health Interview Survey 2018 and the administrative claim database 2017-2020 hosted by the Intermutualistic Agency. We included people aged 15 and older, who had complete profiles (N = 9753). Applying a system costing perspective, the average annual direct cost per person per dyad/triad was presented in 2022 Euro and comprised mainly direct medical costs. We developed mixed models to analyse the impact of single chronic conditions, dyads and triads on healthcare costs, considering two-/three-way interactions within dyads/triads, key cost determinants and clustering at the household level. RESULTS: People with multimorbidity constituted nearly half of the study population and their total healthcare cost constituted around three quarters of the healthcare cost of the study population. The most common dyad, arthropathies + dorsopathies, with a 14% prevalence rate, accounted for 11% of the total national health expenditure. The most frequent triad, arthropathies + dorsopathies + hypertension, with a 5% prevalence rate, contributed 5%. The average annual direct costs per person with dyad and triad were €3515 (95% CI 3093-3937) and €4592 (95% CI 3920-5264), respectively. Dyads and triads associated with cancer, diabetes, chronic fatigue, and genitourinary problems incurred the highest costs. In most cases, the cost associated with multimorbidity was lower or not substantially different from the combined cost of the same conditions observed in separate patients. CONCLUSION: Prevalent morbidity combinations, rather than high-cost ones, made a greater contribution to total national health expenditure. Our study contributes to the sparse evidence on this topic globally and in Europe, with the aim of improving cost-effective care for patients with diverse needs.

Impact of short-term exposure to air pollution on natural mortality and vulnerable populations: a multi-city case-crossover analysis in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: The adverse effect of air pollution on mortality is well documented worldwide but the identification of more vulnerable populations at higher risk of death is still limited. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between natural mortality (overall and cause-specific) and short-term exposure to five air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, O3 and black carbon) and identify potential vulnerable populations in Belgium. METHODS: We used a time-stratified case-crossover design with conditional logistic regressions to assess the relationship between mortality and air pollution in the nine largest Belgian agglomerations. Then, we performed a random-effect meta-analysis of the pooled results and described the global air pollution-mortality association. We carried out stratified analyses by individual characteristics (sex, age, employment, hospitalization days and chronic preexisting health conditions), living environment (levels of population density, built-up areas) and season of death to identify effect modifiers of the association. RESULTS: The study included 304,754 natural deaths registered between 2010 and 2015. We found percentage increases for overall natural mortality associated with 10 µg/m3 increases of air pollution levels of 0.6% (95% CI: 0.2%, 1.0%) for PM2.5, 0.4% (0.1%, 0.8%) for PM10, 0.5% (-0.2%, 1.1%) for O3, 1.0% (0.3%, 1.7%) for NO2 and 7.1% (-0.1%, 14.8%) for black carbon. There was also evidence for increases of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. We did not find effect modification by individual characteristics (sex, age, employment, hospitalization days). However, this study suggested differences in risk of death for people with preexisting conditions (thrombosis, cardiovascular diseases, asthma, diabetes and thyroid affections), season of death (May-September vs October-April) and levels of built-up area in the neighborhood (for NO2). CONCLUSIONS: This work provided evidence for the adverse health effects of air pollution and contributed to the identification of specific population groups. These findings can help to better define public-health interventions and prevention strategies.

The incremental healthcare cost associated with cancer in Belgium: A registry-based data analysis.

BACKGROUND: Similar to many countries, Belgium experienced a rapid increase in cancer diagnoses in the last years. Considering that a large part of cancer types could be prevented, our study aimed to estimate the annual healthcare burden of cancer per site, and to compare cost with burden of disease estimates to have a better understanding of the impact of different cancer sites in Belgium. METHODS: We used nationally available data sources to estimate the healthcare expenditure. We opted for a prevalence-based approach which measures the disease attributable costs that occur concurrently for 10-year prevalent cancer cases in 2018. Average attributable costs of cancer were computed via matching of cases (patients with cancer by site) and controls (patients without cancer). Years of life lost due to disability (YLD) were used to summarize the health impact of the selected cancers. RESULTS: The highest attributable cost in 2018 among the selected cancers was on average €15,867 per patient for bronchus and lung cancer, followed by liver cancer, pancreatic cancer, and mesothelioma. For the total cost, lung cancer was the most costly cancer site with almost €700 million spent in 2018. Lung cancer was followed by breast and colorectal cancer that costed more than €300 million each in 2018. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, the direct attributable cost of the most prevalent cancer sites in Belgium was estimated to provide useful guidance for cost containment policies. Many of these cancers could be prevented by tackling risk factors such as smoking, obesity, and environmental stressors.

Linking health survey data with health insurance data: methodology, challenges, opportunities and recommendations for public health research. An experience from the HISlink project in Belgium.

In recent years, the linkage of survey data to health administrative data has increased. This offers new opportunities for research into the use of health services and public health. Building on the HISlink use case, the linkage of Belgian Health Interview Survey (BHIS) data and Belgian Compulsory Health Insurance (BCHI) data, this paper provides an overview of the practical implementation of linking data, the outcomes in terms of a linked dataset and of the studies conducted as well as the lessons learned and recommendations for future links.Individual BHIS 2013 and 2018 data was linked to BCHI data using the national register number. The overall linkage rate was 92.3% and 94.2% for HISlink 2013 and HISlink 2018, respectively. Linked BHIS-BCHI data were used in validation studies (e.g. self-reported breast cancer screening; chronic diseases, polypharmacy), in policy-driven research (e.g., mediation effect of health literacy in the relationship between socioeconomic status and health related outcomes, and in longitudinal study (e.g. identifying predictors of nursing home admission among older BHIS participants). The linkage of both data sources combines their strengths but does not overcome all weaknesses.The availability of a national register number was an asset for HISlink. Policy-makers and researchers must take initiatives to find a better balance between the right to privacy of respondents and society's right to evidence-based information to improve health. Researchers should be aware that the procedures necessary to implement a link may have an impact on the timeliness of their research. Although some aspects of HISlink are specific to the Belgian context, we believe that some lessons learned are useful in an international context, especially for other European Union member states that collect similar data.

Adherence to '5-2-1-0' guidelines and multiple risky behaviours among adolescents in nine sub-Saharan African countries: evidence from Global School-based Student Health Survey 2012-2017.

Objective: Overweight and obesity constitute a new challenge in low-income and middle-countries. The obesity prevention programme, called '5-2-1-0', promotes healthy eating habits, physical activity and limited screen time among young people.This study aimed to assess adherence to the '5-2-1-0' recommendations and to study multiple risky behaviours among adolescents in nine countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: Meta-analyses with a random effect were used to calculate overall prevalence. Non-random patterns of the co-occurrence of the four risky behaviours were explored using observed/expected prevalence ratios. Data came from the Global School-based Health Survey and 18 314 adolescents were considered. Results: Among the participants, 12.7% (95% CI 7.5% to 19.0%) had overweight and 3.2% (95% CI 1.1% to 6.1%) had obesity. In almost all countries studied, girls were more affected by overweight and obesity than boys.While only 0.2% (95% CI 0.1% to 0.4%) of the adolescents fully complied with the recommendations, 4.8% (95% CI 3.1% to 6.9%), 28.4% (95% CI 22.4% to 34.8%), 43.8% (95% CI 41.9% to 45.8%) and 17.0% (95% CI 11.8% to 23.0%), respectively, combined 1, 2, 3 and 4 risky behaviours among the four '5-2-1-0' criteria. The most observed combination was found for co-occurrence of three risky behaviours: insufficient fruit/vegetables consumption, physical activity and non-zero consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. Conclusion: In conclusion, the insufficient adherence to '5-2-1-0' recommendations and the high prevalence of the co-occurrence of risky behaviours underscore the need to strengthen health interventions and programmes to prevent obesity among adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa.

Data collection in pandemic times: the case of the Belgian COVID-19 health surveys.

BACKGROUND: Survey data were needed to assess the mental and social health, health related behaviors and compliance with preventive measures of the population during the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, the pandemic challenged classical survey methods. Time and budgetary constraints at the beginning of the pandemic led to ad hoc recruitment of participants and easily manageable data collection modes. This paper describes the methodological choices and results in terms of participation for the COVID-19 health surveys conducted in Belgium. METHODS: The COVID-19 health surveys refer to a series of ten non-probability web surveys organized between April 2020 and March 2022. The applied recruitment strategies were diverse including, amongst others, a launch through the website and the social media of the organizing research institute. In addition, the survey links were shared in articles published in the national press and participants were requested to share the surveys in their network. Furthermore, participants were asked consent to be re-contacted for next survey editions using e-mail invitations. RESULTS: These mixed approaches allowed to reach a substantial number of participants per edition ranging from 49339 in survey 1 to 13882 in survey 10. In addition, a longitudinal component was created; a large share of the same individuals were followed up over time; 12599 participants completed at least 5 surveys. There were, however, sex, age, educational level and regional differences in participation. Post-stratification weighting on socio-demographic factors was applied to at least partly take this into account. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 health surveys allowed rapid data collection after the onset of the pandemic. Data from these non-probability web surveys had their limitations in terms of representativeness due to self-selection but were an important information source as there were few alternatives. Moreover, by following-up the same individuals over time it was possible to study the effect of the different crisis phases on, amongst others, the mental health. It is important to draw lessons from these experiences: initiatives in order to create a survey infrastructure better equipped for future crises are needed.

Comparing self-reported health interview survey and pharmacy billing data in determining the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: Administrative and health surveys are used in monitoring key health indicators in a population. This study investigated the agreement between self-reported disease status from the Belgian Health Interview Survey (BHIS) and pharmaceutical insurance claims extracted from the Belgian Compulsory Health Insurance (BCHI) in ascertaining the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia. METHODS: Linkage was made between the BHIS 2018 and the BCHI 2018, from which chronic condition was ascertained using the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification and defined daily dose. The data sources were compared using estimates of disease prevalence and various measures of agreement and validity. Multivariable logistic regression was performed for each chronic condition to identify the factors associated to the agreement between the two data sources. RESULTS: The prevalence estimates computed from the BCHI and the self-reported disease definition in BHIS, respectively, are 5.8% and 5.9% diabetes cases, 24.6% and 17.6% hypertension cases, and 16.2% and 18.1% of hypercholesterolemia cases. The overall agreement and kappa coefficient between the BCHI and the self-reported disease status is highest for diabetes and is equivalent to 97.6% and 0.80, respectively. The disagreement between the two data sources in ascertaining diabetes is associated with multimorbidity and older age categories. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated the capability of pharmacy billing data in ascertaining and monitoring diabetes in the Belgian population. More studies are needed to assess the applicability of pharmacy claims in ascertaining other chronic conditions and to evaluate the performance of other administrative data such as hospital records containing diagnostic codes.

The health and economic burden of musculoskeletal disorders in Belgium from 2013 to 2018.

INTRODUCTION: Low back pain (LBP), neck pain (NKP), osteoarthritis (OST) and rheumatoid arthritis (RHE) are among the musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders causing the greatest disability in terms of Years Lived with Disability. The current study aims to analyze the health and economic impact of these MSK disorders in Belgium, providing a summary of morbidity and mortality outcomes from 2013 to 2018, as well as direct and indirect costs from 2013 to 2017. METHODS: The health burden of LBP, NKP, OST and RHE in Belgium from 2013 to 2018 was summarized in terms of prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) using data from the Belgian health interview surveys (BHIS), the INTEGO database (Belgian registration network for general practitioners) and the Global Burden of Diseases study 2019. The economic burden included estimates of direct medical costs and indirect costs, measured by cost of work absenteeism. For this purpose, data of the respondents to the BHIS-2013 were linked with the national health insurance data (intermutualistic agency [IMA] database) 2013-2017. RESULTS: In 2018, 2.5 million Belgians were affected by at least one MSK disorder. OST represented the disorder with the highest number of cases for both men and women, followed by LBP. In the same year, MSK disorders contributed to a total of 180,746 DALYs for female and 116,063 DALYs for men. LBP appeared to be the largest contributor to the health burden of MSK. Having at least one MSK disorder costed on average 3 billion € in medical expenses and 2 billion € in indirect costs per year, with LBP being the most costly. CONCLUSION: MSK disorders represent a major health and economic burden in Belgium. As their burden will probably continue to increase in the future, acting on the risk factors associated to these disorders is crucial to mitigate both the health and economic burden.

Using random-forest multiple imputation to address bias of self-reported anthropometric measures, hypertension and hypercholesterolemia in the Belgian health interview survey.

BACKGROUND: In many countries, the prevalence of non-communicable diseases risk factors is commonly assessed through self-reported information from health interview surveys. It has been shown, however, that self-reported instead of objective data lead to an underestimation of the prevalence of obesity, hypertension and hypercholesterolemia. This study aimed to assess the agreement between self-reported and measured height, weight, hypertension and hypercholesterolemia and to identify an adequate approach for valid measurement error correction. METHODS: Nine thousand four hundred thirty-nine participants of the 2018 Belgian health interview survey (BHIS) older than 18 years, of which 1184 participated in the 2018 Belgian health examination survey (BELHES), were included in the analysis. Regression calibration was compared with multiple imputation by chained equations based on parametric and non-parametric techniques. RESULTS: This study confirmed the underestimation of risk factor prevalence based on self-reported data. With both regression calibration and multiple imputation, adjusted estimation of these variables in the BHIS allowed to generate national prevalence estimates that were closer to their BELHES clinical counterparts. For overweight, obesity and hypertension, all methods provided smaller standard errors than those obtained with clinical data. However, for hypercholesterolemia, for which the regression model's accuracy was poor, multiple imputation was the only approach which provided smaller standard errors than those based on clinical data. CONCLUSIONS: The random-forest multiple imputation proves to be the method of choice to correct the bias related to self-reported data in the BHIS. This method is particularly useful to enable improved secondary analysis of self-reported data by using information included in the BELHES. Whenever feasible, combined information from HIS and objective measurements should be used in risk factor monitoring.

Predictors of nursing home admission in the older population in Belgium: a longitudinal follow-up of health interview survey participants.

BACKGROUND: This study examines predictors of nursing home admission (NHA) in Belgium in order to contribute to a better planning of the future demand for nursing home (NH) services and health care resources. METHODS: Data derived from the Belgian 2013 health interview survey were linked at individual level with health insurance data (2012 tot 2018). Only community dwelling participants, aged ≥65 years at the time of the survey were included in this study (n = 1930). Participants were followed until NHA, death or end of study period, i.e., December 31, 2018. The risk of NHA was calculated using a competing risk analysis. RESULTS: Over the follow-up period (median 5.29 years), 226 individuals were admitted to a NH and 268 died without admission to a NH. The overall cumulative risk of NHA was 1.4, 5.7 and 13.1% at respectively 1 year, 3 years and end of follow-up period. After multivariable adjustment, higher age, low educational attainment, living alone and use of home care services were significantly associated with a higher risk of NHA. A number of need factors (e.g., history of falls, suffering from urinary incontinence, depression or Alzheimer's disease) were also significantly associated with a higher risk of NHA. On the contrary, being female, having multimorbidity and increased contacts with health care providers were significantly associated with a decreased risk of NHA. Perceived health and limitations were both significant determinants of NHA, but perceived health was an effect modifier on limitations and vice versa. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings pinpoint important predictors of NHA in older adults, and offer possibilities of prevention to avoid or delay NHA for this population. Practical implications include prevention of falls, management of urinary incontinence at home and appropriate and timely management of limitations, depression and Alzheimer's disease. Focus should also be on people living alone to provide more timely contacts with health care providers. Further investigation of predictors of NHA should include contextual factors such as the availability of nursing-home beds, hospital beds, physicians and waiting lists for NHA.

A healthy lifestyle is positively associated with mental health and well-being and core markers in ageing.

BACKGROUND: Studies often evaluate mental health and well-being in association with individual health behaviours although evaluating multiple health behaviours that co-occur in real life may reveal important insights into the overall association. Also, the underlying pathways of how lifestyle might affect our health are still under debate. Here, we studied the mediation of different health behaviours or lifestyle factors on mental health and its effect on core markers of ageing: telomere length (TL) and mitochondrial DNA content (mtDNAc). METHODS: In this study, 6054 adults from the 2018 Belgian Health Interview Survey (BHIS) were included. Mental health and well-being outcomes included psychological and severe psychological distress, vitality, life satisfaction, self-perceived health, depressive and generalised anxiety disorder and suicidal ideation. A lifestyle score integrating diet, physical activity, smoking status, alcohol consumption and BMI was created and validated. On a subset of 739 participants, leucocyte TL and mtDNAc were assessed using qPCR. Generalised linear mixed models were used while adjusting for a priori chosen covariates. RESULTS: The average age (SD) of the study population was 49.9 (17.5) years, and 48.8% were men. A one-point increment in the lifestyle score was associated with lower odds (ranging from 0.56 to 0.74) for all studied mental health outcomes and with a 1.74% (95% CI: 0.11, 3.40%) longer TL and 4.07% (95% CI: 2.01, 6.17%) higher mtDNAc. Psychological distress and suicidal ideation were associated with a lower mtDNAc of - 4.62% (95% CI: - 8.85, - 0.20%) and - 7.83% (95% CI: - 14.77, - 0.34%), respectively. No associations were found between mental health and TL. CONCLUSIONS: In this large-scale study, we showed the positive association between a healthy lifestyle and both biological ageing and different dimensions of mental health and well-being. We also indicated that living a healthy lifestyle contributes to more favourable biological ageing.

Health care costs and lost productivity costs related to excess weight in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to estimate annual health care and lost productivity costs associated with excess weight among the adult population in Belgium, using national health data. METHODS: Health care costs and costs of absenteeism were estimated using data from the Belgian national health interview survey (BHIS) 2013 linked with individual health insurance data (2013-2017). Average yearly health care costs and costs of absenteeism were assessed by body mass index (BMI) categories - i.e., underweight (BMI < 18.5 kg/m2), normal weight (18.5 ≤ BMI < 25 kg/m2), overweight (25 ≤ BMI < 30 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2). Health care costs were also analysed by type of cost (i.e. ambulatory, hospital, reimbursed medication). The cost attributable to excess weight and the contribution of various other chronic conditions to the incremental cost of excess weight were estimated using the method of recycled prediction (a.k.a. standardisation). RESULTS: According to BHIS 2013, 34.7% and 13.9% of the Belgian adult population were respectively affected by overweight or obesity. They were mostly concentrated in the age-group 35-65 years and had significantly more chronic conditions compared to the normal weight population. Average total healthcare expenses for people with overweight and obesity were significantly higher than those observed in the normal weight population. The adjusted incremental annual health care cost of excess weight in Belgium was estimated at €3,329,206,657 (€651 [95% CI: €144-€1,084] and €1,015 [95% CI: €343-€1,697] per capita for individuals with overweight and obesity respectively). The comorbidities identified to be the main drivers for these incremental health care costs were hypertension, high cholesterol, serious gloom and depression. Mean annual incremental cost of absenteeism for overweight accounted for €242 per capita but was not statistically significant, people with obesity showed a significantly higher cost (p < 0.001) compared to the normal weight population: €2,015 [95% CI: €179-€4,336] per capita. The annual total incremental costs due to absenteeism of the population affected by overweight and obesity was estimated at €1,209,552,137. Arthritis, including rheumatoid arthritis and osteoarthritis, was the most important driver of the incremental cost of absenteeism in individuals with overweight and obesity, followed by hypertension and low back pain. CONCLUSIONS: The mean annual incremental cost of excess weight in Belgium is of concern and stresses the need for policy actions aiming to reduce excess body weight. This study can be used as a baseline to evaluate the potential savings and health benefits of obesity prevention interventions.

Opportunities for a population-based cohort in Belgium.

Population-based cohorts allow providing answers to a wide range of policy-relevant research questions. In Belgium, existing cohort-like initiatives are limited by their focus on specific population groups or specific topics, or they lack a true longitudinal design. Since 2016, consultations and deliberative processes have been set up to explore the opportunities for a population-based cohort in Belgium. Through these processes, several recommendations emerged to pave the way forward - i.e., to facilitate the establishment of administrative linkages, increase digitalisation, secure long-term financial and organisational efforts, establish a consortium of the willing, and identify and tackle ethical and legal bottlenecks. This comment summarizes these recommendations, as these opportunities should be explored in depth to consolidate the existing collaborations between different stakeholders, and refers to current initiatives that can further facilitate the establishment of a Belgian population-based cohort and, more generally, administrative and health data linkage and reuse for research and policy-making.

Association between temperature and natural mortality in Belgium: Effect modification by individual characteristics and residential environment.

BACKGROUND: There is strong evidence of mortality being associated to extreme temperatures but the extent to which individual or residential factors modulate this temperature vulnerability is less clear. METHODS: We conducted a multi-city study with a time-stratified case-crossover design and used conditional logistic regression to examine the association between extreme temperatures and overall natural and cause-specific mortality. City-specific estimates were pooled using a random-effect meta-analysis to describe the global association. Cold and heat effects were assessed by comparing the mortality risks corresponding to the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the daily temperature, respectively, with the minimum mortality temperature. For cold, we cumulated the risk over lags of 0 to 28 days before death and 0 to 7 days for heat. We carried out stratified analyses and assessed effect modification by individual characteristics, preexisting chronic health conditions and residential environment (population density, built-up area and air pollutants: PM2.5, NO2, O3 and black carbon) to identify more vulnerable population subgroups. RESULTS: Based on 307,859 deaths from natural causes, we found significant cold effect (OR = 1.42, 95%CI: 1.30-1.57) and heat effect (OR = 1.17, 95%CI: 1.12-1.21) for overall natural mortality and for respiratory causes in particular. There were significant effects modifications for some health conditions: people with asthma were at higher risk for cold, and people with psychoses for heat. In addition, people with long or frequent hospital admissions in the year preceding death were at lower risk. Despite large uncertainties, there was suggestion of effect modification by air pollutants: the effect of heat was higher on more polluted days of O3 and black carbon, and a higher cold effect was observed on more polluted days of PM2.5 and NO2 while for O3, the effect was lower. CONCLUSIONS: These findings allow for targeted planning of public-health measures aiming to prevent the effects of extreme temperatures.

QALY losses for chronic diseases and its social distribution in the general population: results from the Belgian Health Interview Survey.

BACKGROUND: The burden of chronic diseases is rapidly rising, both in terms of morbidity and mortality. This burden is disproportionally carried by socially disadvantaged population subgroups. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) measure the impact of disease on mortality and morbidity into a single index. This study aims to estimate the burden of chronic diseases in terms of QALY losses and to model its social distribution for the general population. METHODS: The Belgian Health Interview Survey 2013 and 2018 provided data on self-reported chronic conditions for a nationally representative sample. The annual QALY loss per 100,000 individuals was calculated for each condition, incorporating disease prevalence and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) data (EQ-5D-5L). Socioeconomic inequalities, based on respondents' socioeconomic status (SES), were assessed by estimating population attributable fractions (PAF). RESULTS: For both years, the largest QALY losses were observed in dorsopathies, arthropathies, hypertension/high cholesterol, and genitourinary problems. QALY losses were larger in women and in older individuals. Individuals with high SES had consistently lower QALY loss when facing a chronic disease compared to those with low SES. In both years, a higher PAF was found in individuals with hip fracture and stroke. In 2013, the health inequality gap amounts to 33,731 QALYs and further expanded to 42,273 QALYs in 2018. CONCLUSION: Given that chronic diseases will rise in the next decades, addressing its burden is necessary, particularly among the most vulnerable (i.e. older persons, women, low SES). Interventions in these target groups should get priority in order to reduce the burden of chronic diseases.

Prevalence of Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies and Potential Determinants among the Belgian Adult Population: Baseline Results of a Prospective Cohort Study.

The prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and potential determinants were assessed in a random sample representative of the Belgian adult population. In total, 14,201 individuals (≥18 years) were invited by mail to provide saliva via an Oracol® swab. Survey weights were applied, and potential determinants were estimated using multivariable logistic regressions. Between March and August 2021, 2767 individuals participated in the first data collection. During this period, which coincided with the onset of the vaccination campaign, the seroprevalence in the population increased from 25.2% in March/April to 78.1% in July. Among the vaccinated there was an increase from 74,2% to 98.8%; among the unvaccinated, the seroprevalence remained stable (around 17%). Among the vaccinated, factors significantly associated with the presence of antibodies were: having at least one chronic disease (ORa 0.22 (95% CI 0.08-0.62)), having received an mRNA-type vaccine (ORa 5.38 (95% CI 1.72-16.80)), and having received an influenza vaccine in 2020-2021 (ORa 3.79 (95% CI 1.30-11.07)). Among the unvaccinated, having a non-O blood type (ORa 2.00 (95% CI 1.09-3.67)) and having one or more positive COVID-19 tests (ORa 11.04 (95% CI 4.69-26.02)) were significantly associated. This study provides a better understanding of vaccine- and/or natural-induced presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and factors that are associated with this presence.

Air pollution in association with mental and self-rated health and the mediating effect of physical activity.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies showed that air pollution might play a role in the etiology of mental disorders. In this study we evaluated the association between air pollution and mental and self-rated health and the possible mediating effect of physical activity in this association. METHODS: In 2008, 2013 and 2018 the Belgian Health Interview Survey (BHIS) enrolled 16,455 participants who completed following mental health dimensions: psychological distress, suboptimal vitality, suicidal ideation, and depressive and generalized anxiety disorder and self-rated health. Annual exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5) and black carbon (BC) were estimated at the participants' residence by a high resolution spatiotemporal model. Multivariate logistic regressions were carried out taking into account a priori selected covariates. RESULTS: Long-term exposure to PM2.5, BC and NO2 averaged 14.5, 1.4, and 21.8 µg/m3, respectively. An interquartile range (IQR) increment in PM2.5 exposure was associated with higher odds of suboptimal vitality (OR = 1.27; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.42), poor self-rated health (OR = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.32) and depressive disorder (OR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.41). Secondly, an association was found between BC exposure and higher odds of poor self-rated health and depressive and generalized anxiety disorder and between NO2 exposure and higher odds of psychological distress, suboptimal vitality and poor self-rated health. No association was found between long-term ambient air pollution and suicidal ideation or severe psychological distress. The mediation analysis suggested that between 15.2% (PM2.5-generalized anxiety disorder) and 40.1% (NO2-poor self-rated health) of the association may be mediated by a difference in physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to PM2.5, BC or NO2 was adversely associated with multiple mental health dimensions and self-rated health and part of the association was mediated by physical activity. Our results suggest that policies aiming to reduce air pollution levels could also reduce the burden of mental health disorders in Belgium.

COVID-19 mortality, excess mortality, deaths per million and infection fatality ratio, Belgium, 9 March 2020 to 28 June 2020.

BackgroundCOVID-19 mortality, excess mortality, deaths per million population (DPM), infection fatality ratio (IFR) and case fatality ratio (CFR) are reported and compared for many countries globally. These measures may appear objective, however, they should be interpreted with caution.AimWe examined reported COVID-19-related mortality in Belgium from 9 March 2020 to 28 June 2020, placing it against the background of excess mortality and compared the DPM and IFR between countries and within subgroups.MethodsThe relation between COVID-19-related mortality and excess mortality was evaluated by comparing COVID-19 mortality and the difference between observed and weekly average predictions of all-cause mortality. DPM were evaluated using demographic data of the Belgian population. The number of infections was estimated by a stochastic compartmental model. The IFR was estimated using a delay distribution between infection and death.ResultsIn the study period, 9,621 COVID-19-related deaths were reported, which is close to the excess mortality estimated using weekly averages (8,985 deaths). This translates to 837 DPM and an IFR of 1.5% in the general population. Both DPM and IFR increase with age and are substantially larger in the nursing home population.DiscussionDuring the first pandemic wave, Belgium had no discrepancy between COVID-19-related mortality and excess mortality. In light of this close agreement, it is useful to consider the DPM and IFR, which are both age, sex, and nursing home population-dependent. Comparison of COVID-19 mortality between countries should rather be based on excess mortality than on COVID-19-related mortality.

Validity of self-reported air pollution annoyance to assess long-term exposure to air pollutants in Belgium.

In epidemiological studies, assessment of long term exposure to air pollution is often estimated using air pollution measurements at fixed monitoring stations, and interpolated to the residence of survey participants through Geographical Information Systems (GIS). However, obtaining georeferenced address data from national registries requires a long and cumbersome administrative procedure, since this kind of personal data is protected by privacy regulations. This paper aims to assess whether information collected in health interview surveys, including air pollution annoyance, could be used to build prediction models for assessing individual long term exposure to air pollution, removing the need for data on personal residence address. Analyses were carried out based on data from the Belgian Health Interview Survey (BHIS) 2013 linked to GIS-modelled air pollution exposure at the residence place of participants older than 15 years (n = 9347). First, univariate linear regressions were performed to assess the relationship between air pollution annoyance and modelled exposure to each air pollutant. Secondly, a multivariable linear regression was performed for each air pollutant based on a set of variables selected with elastic net cross-validation, including variables related to environmental annoyance, socio-economic and health status of participants. Finally, the performance of the models to classify individuals in three levels of exposure was assessed by means of a confusion matrix. Our results suggest a limited validity of self-reported air pollution annoyance as a direct proxy for air pollution exposure and a weak contribution of environmental annoyance variables in prediction models. Models using variables related to the socio-economic status, region, urban level and environmental annoyance allow to predict individual air pollution exposure with a percentage of error ranging from 8% to 18%. Although these models do not provide very accurate predictions in terms of absolute exposure to air pollution, they do allow to classify individuals in groups of relative exposure levels, ranking participants from low over medium to high air pollution exposure. This model represents a rapid assessment tool to identify groups within the BHIS participants undergoing the highest levels of environmental stress.